Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh, in Delhi on a four-day visit, will hope to return with a bag full of crucial agreements that could stand her in good stead in the country’s next election towards the end of 2023. Last month, when Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen declared at a public gathering that India must ensure PM Hasina stays on in the interests of regional stability, the statement caused red faces on both sides, and the minister did not find place in Hasina’s delegation to Delhi. It is no secret that India would be more than pleased if PM Hasina were to win a fourth consecutive term. India-Bangladesh ties have seen their best phase under her premiership from 2009. Her strong stand against Islamist militancy and terrorism, and her government’s denial of safe havens to anti-India groups have built a strong basis for co-operation. Of course, the relationship has not been free of problems. The National Register of Citizens in Assam and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act nationally have provoked concern in Dhaka. While it was left to diplomacy to do damage control — India’s anti-Covid vaccine diplomacy provided a healing touch — it was largely PM Hasina’s political maturity, her astute understanding of the regional dynamic, and her ability to see the big picture that saw the smoothening out of the bad patch. When anti-Hindu riots broke out during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit ahead of West Bengal elections in 2021, Delhi’s appreciation of the stern action against those who had instigated the riots was in striking contrast to its reactions to episodes of anti-minority violence in Pakistan.
PM Hasina has also calibrated the India-China balance with tact. Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in Dhaka. China describes itself as Bangladesh’s “most reliable long-term strategic partner”, but the country’s foreign minister told the Financial Times only days later that Sri Lanka was a cautionary tale on taking loans from Beijing. No doubt Hasina’s visit will provide Delhi the opportunity to gauge the Dhaka-Beijing relationship better. But India and Bangladesh can say they have the best cross-border overland connectivity links in the South Asian region, with more plans in the pipeline. The countries are joined by two bus services and three train services. Bar one, all pre-Partition rail links between smaller stations have been restored. Bangladesh wants to join the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway. Waterway agreements have facilitated trade through inland waters making it easier for India to transport goods through Chittagong port to the north-east, while Bangladesh’s trade with third countries, such as Bhutan and Nepal, can be routed through Indian ports. The two countries also have significant energy co-operation — the entire output of a 1,600-megawatt purpose built thermal plant by the Adani group in Jharkhand is supplied to Bangladesh which purchases it under a 2016 agreement.
The two sides may sign a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement during this visit. But what the Bangladesh Prime Minister really wants is a Teesta river water-sharing agreement, stuck for over 10 years, in large part due to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s opposition. Both PM Hasina’s supporters and opponents at home will be tracking the visit to see if it delivers on this all-important demand.
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